Possible scenario
Deal Advances Intact
38% Chance
The most likely path is that Tesla and SpaceX continue pursuing the all-stock combination without materially reducing Elon Musk’s proposed voting power. The strategic argument—combining EVs, AI, robotics, batteries, launch, Starlink, and xAI-adjacent infrastructure—wins enough investor support despite governance objections.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Technology +0.2%
Tickers
- SPCX+5.0%
- TSLA-2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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