Possible scenario
Credit-Fueled Spending Strain
20% Chance
Investors focus on the tension between strong nominal spending, falling real wages and earlier evidence of rising credit-card delinquencies. The retail-sales beat is viewed as less sustainable, pressuring lenders and lower-income consumer-exposed retailers.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.2%
- Finance -0.6%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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