Rapid Security Containment

The most likely path is that the government uses a heavy police presence, localized curfews, and rapid prosecutions to reduce violence within several days. The scale of arrests and officer injuries keeps the issue politically intense, but markets treat it as a contained French domestic-security shock rather than a European macro crisis.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.