Possible scenario
Political Security Backlash
18% Chance
The unrest becomes a national political confrontation over policing, immigration, social spending and Macron's authority. The economic impact is still secondary, but uncertainty rises if the National Rally and France Unbowed turn the crisis into a parliamentary showdown.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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