Possible scenario
Yuan Settlement Push
25% Chance
China uses the national blockchain as a settlement layer for digital yuan, tokenized deposits, or tightly regulated yuan stablecoins, especially through Hong Kong and Belt and Road trade corridors. This would extend the July 2025 stablecoin discussion into a controlled internationalization strategy for the yuan.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
- US dollar Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.6%
- Technology +0.5%
- Business Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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