Possible scenario
Private Crypto Squeezed
15% Chance
The national network becomes a vehicle for another round of restrictions on public-chain activity, offshore exchanges, and yuan-linked private tokens. This is consistent with China's 2021 crypto ban and would likely pressure crypto-linked firms more than broad equity markets.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.5%
- Finance -0.2%
Tickers
- COIN-2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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