Possible scenario
Israel Contains Fallout
45% Chance
President Isaac Herzog's apology is followed by a limited Israeli law-enforcement response that reduces immediate U.S. pressure. The government presents the attack as an isolated criminal incident rather than evidence of a broader permissive environment in the West Bank.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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