Possible scenario
Dismissal Stands
55% Chance
The most likely path is that the permanent dismissal remains in place and the case fades as a legal overhang for Sam Altman. Because the dismissal is procedural and follows missed court-ordered exams, the immediate market relevance is limited and mostly reputational.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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