Possible scenario
Enforcement Pact Takes Hold
40% Chance
The most likely path is a practical trilateral enforcement regime rather than an immediate trade shock. Washington, Mexico City, and Buenos Aires coordinate customs data, entity-list screening, and evidence standards, giving companies time to adjust while still tightening forced-labor import controls.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +1.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.4%
- Industrials -0.8%
- Technology -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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