Possible scenario
Backlash From Trade Partners
25% Chance
Asian exporters and some G20 members challenge the pact as a discriminatory side arrangement that bypasses multilateral trade forums. The immediate market impact is limited but negative for globally sourced consumer goods and manufacturers exposed to cross-border customs delays.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Industrials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.