Possible scenario
Gradual Price Correction
42% Chance
The record 63% seller surplus turns into a slow clearing process rather than a crash. Sellers increasingly cut asking prices, especially in Sun Belt metros, while national home-price indexes flatten or decline modestly into early 2027.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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