Possible scenario
Court Finds Mootness
35% Chance
A federal judge accepts DHS and Border Patrol representations that taxpayer-funded Trump immigration ads ended on Sunday, limiting immediate injunctive relief. Watchdogs continue to press for records and accounting of the remaining roughly $1 million, but the near-term legal outcome is procedural rather than sweeping.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.