Possible scenario
Hormuz Disruption Widens
30% Chance
Iran-linked attacks and war-risk insurance restrictions could further reduce Gulf tanker movements, turning the current risk premium into a more durable supply shock. This would push Brent and WTI higher, lift energy equities, and pressure transport, consumer, and credit-sensitive assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.