Possible scenario
Expiry Premium Fades
35% Chance
The most likely near-term path is that part of the $103.66 settlement reflects expiring-contract tightness rather than a fresh shock to physical supply. The December contract and Brent remain firm because Hormuz risk is still priced, but the most extreme prompt-month premium fades after Tuesday expiry.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Tickers
- DAL+0.8%
- +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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