Possible scenario
Escorts Restore Flows
22% Chance
Diplomatic backchannels involving Oman, Qatar, and the United States could reduce the immediate threat to shipping, while naval escorts allow delayed cargoes to move. Oil would lose part of its geopolitical premium, supporting fuel-sensitive sectors and easing inflation fears.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.8%
- Energy -1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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