Possible scenario
Wider Strike Campaign
15% Chance
Ukraine follows up the Kuibyshev and Novokuibyshevsk strikes with additional attacks on Russian refining capacity. This would move the news from a single-asset event toward a broader energy-sector disruption, producing a larger but still contained market reaction.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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