Possible scenario
Regional Fuel Crunch
30% Chance
The repeat fire compounds Russia’s existing fuel crunch and forces Moscow to prioritize domestic diesel and gasoline supply. Export restrictions remain the main policy tool, with modest upside risk to global oil and product prices.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.