Possible scenario
Contained Refinery Outage
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the repeat fire damages auxiliary units or storage areas but does not knock the Kuibyshev refinery fully offline for long. Russia has experience rerouting crude and repair crews after prior drone strikes, limiting the near-term market impact.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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