Possible scenario
Guidance Is Rewritten
38% Chance
The most likely path is a formal policy reset: Justice and Education replace the 2021 school-board threat framework with narrower guidance distinguishing protected parental advocacy from criminal threats. This would let the departments claim corrective action without abandoning federal involvement in genuine violence or intimidation cases.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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