Possible scenario
Probe Broadens Further
28% Chance
The investigation expands beyond the initially cited suspects and securities, with prosecutors seeking additional freezes or transaction reviews. This would reinforce foreign-investor concerns that the liquidation process may become wider and less predictable, pressuring Turkish risk assets and global financial-sector sentiment modestly.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.9%
- Business Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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