Possible scenario
Orderly Enforcement Continues
42% Chance
Turkish prosecutors, the Capital Markets Board of Turkey and Borsa Istanbul keep the investigation focused on the already identified 26 stocks and the related fund-liquidation process. This is the most likely path because the sequence of arrests, asset freezes and liquidation-board actions suggests an enforcement campaign that is escalating procedurally rather than becoming a systemic financial event.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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