Possible scenario
Red Sea Disruption
25% Chance
The Houthis respond to Saudi and Egyptian involvement by targeting commercial shipping or naval assets near the Red Sea chokepoint. Even a short disruption would raise freight, insurance, and energy-risk premia because the route is critical for Europe-Asia trade and Gulf energy flows.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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