Possible scenario
Contained Ground Offensive
40% Chance
Saudi Arabia and Egypt press a limited campaign focused on degrading Houthi launch sites and securing approaches to the Bab el-Mandeb corridor. The fighting remains intense inside Yemen but does not trigger a full regional confrontation or sustained closure of shipping lanes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.1%
- Energy +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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