Possible scenario
Managed De-Escalation
25% Chance
Regional mediators use the shock of the Israeli operation to push both sides toward a temporary stand-down. Markets would reverse part of the oil-risk premium if Hormuz convoys resume and Iran delays direct retaliation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Bitcoin Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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