Possible scenario
Hormuz Crisis Deepens
27% Chance
Iran uses mines, missiles, or naval harassment to make Hormuz transit materially more difficult after the Israeli strike. The most likely impact is a sharp but not yet catastrophic oil-price jump as shippers, insurers, and navies reassess convoy routes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +6.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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