Possible scenario
Contained Military Exchange
38% Chance
Israel’s operation is answered by Iran with missiles, drones, and proxy fire, but both sides avoid actions that would guarantee a direct U.S.-Iran fight. Oil and risk assets remain stressed because Hormuz traffic is already impaired, but markets treat the exchange as a controlled escalation rather than a full regional war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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