Possible scenario
Orderly Breadth Rotation
28% Chance
Investors use the dot-com comparison as a reason to rebalance rather than abandon equities. Capital rotates from crowded mega-cap growth into financials, industrials, materials and other under-owned sectors with improving earnings.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Finance +0.7%
- Technology -0.6%
- Non-Energy Materials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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