Possible scenario
US Rejects Conditions
18% Chance
Iran’s response is judged insufficient by the U.S. because it preserves too much ambiguity on sequencing or nuclear verification. Diplomacy does not collapse, but the path to reopening Hormuz becomes more contentious.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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