Possible scenario
Sequenced Deal Accepted
40% Chance
Iran gives a broadly positive response to the U.S. seven-day plan, accepting a phased reopening of Hormuz tied to reciprocal U.S. and Gulf-state steps. This is the most likely path because recent reports already point to an enrichment halt and discussion of Russian custody for uranium.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.1%
- Consumer Services +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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