Possible scenario
Counteroffer Extends Talks
30% Chance
Iran avoids outright rejection but demands changes to the order of sanctions relief, inspections, and maritime reopening. Diplomacy remains active, though markets price a longer and more fragile process.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.