Possible scenario
Full Embassy Evacuations
25% Chance
Russia continues missile and drone strikes around Kyiv, pushing Western capitals to remove most or all embassy staff from the city. This would mark a sharper deterioration in diplomatic risk, though still below a direct NATO-Russia confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.