Possible scenario
Tigray counteroffensive resumes
20% Chance
The Tigray Defense Forces absorb the loss of the three cities and counterattack against stretched federal units. The war becomes more fluid again, with airports, roads, and aid corridors repeatedly changing hands.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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