Possible scenario
Federal gains hold
38% Chance
The Ethiopian National Defense Force consolidates control of the recaptured Tigray cities and prevents the Tigray Defense Forces from quickly reopening the northern front. Eritrean forces remain present near the border but avoid another deep thrust while Addis Ababa focuses on securing roads and airports.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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