Possible scenario
Eritrea escalates further
27% Chance
Asmara decides that Ethiopia’s gains are insufficient to secure the border and launches another incursion into northern Tigray. That would raise the risk of direct Ethiopia-Eritrea clashes after the severing of diplomatic ties.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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