Possible scenario
Restrictive Implementation Holds
45% Chance
DHS and USCIS treat the end of deference as a binding operational shift rather than a symbolic change. Employers face higher requests for evidence, longer adjudications, and more extension denials, especially for third-party placement and lower-margin IT services roles.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -1.9%
- Technology -1.4%
- Healthcare -0.5%
Tickers
- CTSH-3.1%
- MSFT-0.9%
- AMZN-0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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