Possible scenario
Hormuz Disruption Deepens
25% Chance
Iran or IRGC-linked forces continue targeting commercial shipping despite the U.S. combat build-up. The Strait of Hormuz remains the main market transmission channel, with energy prices and insurance costs reacting fastest.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +6.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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