Possible scenario
Prolonged Bypass Disruption
25% Chance
The attack disables more critical equipment than expected, forcing Saudi Arabia to rely more heavily on Gulf export terminals and the Strait of Hormuz. Because the pipeline was only recently restarted after an earlier drone strike, traders infer that Houthi targeting of Saudi energy infrastructure is becoming persistent.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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