Possible scenario
Military Escalation Follows
20% Chance
Riyadh concludes that repeated Houthi strikes on the East-West Pipeline cannot be answered only with repairs and air defenses. The United States, Saudi Arabia, and regional partners increase military pressure on Houthi launch sites, raising the risk of broader Red Sea or Gulf disruptions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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