Possible scenario
Limited Pipeline Outage
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the Houthi strike damages a discrete pumping station rather than the full East-West Pipeline network. Saudi Aramco and the Energy Ministry prioritize repairs, use inventories at Yanbu, and shift some barrels through Gulf terminals while keeping export commitments broadly intact.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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