Possible scenario
Extension Holds Firm
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the three-year extension becomes the new sanctions baseline, reducing the risk of six-month veto crises in Brussels. Delisting Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman remains politically controversial, but member states accept the trade-off to preserve the broader Russia sanctions architecture.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Finance +0.1%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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