Possible scenario
Delistings Trigger Backlash
25% Chance
A meaningful minority of member states and European Parliament lawmakers criticize the deal as a concession to wealthy sanctioned Russians. The backlash does not undo the three-year extension, but it produces pressure for stronger evidentiary files, new listings, and tighter anti-circumvention measures.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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