Possible scenario
Ukraine Escalates Strikes
22% Chance
Zelenskyy concludes that refinery strikes are one of Ukraine's few effective levers against Russia's war economy and refuses a broad halt. Moscow extends diesel export restrictions and threatens retaliation, keeping energy supply risk elevated.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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