Possible scenario
Negotiated Diesel Compromise
38% Chance
Washington and Kyiv contain the dispute by reframing the diesel arrangement as a temporary military necessity rather than a concession to Moscow. Zelenskyy accepts limits on strikes against Russian refining infrastructure in exchange for continued U.S. intelligence sharing and expedited air-defense deliveries.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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