Possible scenario
Romania Border Incident
15% Chance
A Russian drone or debris lands across the Romanian border after passing through or near Moldovan airspace, pulling NATO more directly into the response. The most likely outcome is stronger air policing and consultations rather than immediate military retaliation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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