Possible scenario
Sanctions Spiral
20% Chance
Washington and European capitals use Akhlaghi's confirmation to justify additional sanctions on defense procurement, banking channels, and missile-linked logistics firms. The confrontation stays economic, but it narrows the path back to any nuclear or sanctions relief talks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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