Possible scenario
Missile Buildout
25% Chance
Akhlaghi prioritizes missile dispersal, drone production, and hardened command networks after Israeli strikes on Iranian leadership and intelligence sites. This would be a concrete but still mostly non-kinetic response to sanctions and Israeli pressure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.