Possible scenario
Talks Collapse
20% Chance
The Russian envoy uses the New York meeting to reject key U.S. terms, or Washington concludes that the Kremlin is negotiating only to buy time. The result is renewed pressure for sanctions and increased military support to Ukraine.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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