Possible scenario
Stalemate After Meeting
30% Chance
The envoy's New York visit produces no breakdown, but also no substantive narrowing of the gap. Russia holds to demands on occupied territory while Ukraine insists on sovereignty and enforceable U.S.-backed security guarantees.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.