Possible scenario
Limited Diplomatic Progress
38% Chance
Russia's envoy engages seriously enough to keep the U.S. process alive, but Moscow and Kyiv remain far apart on territory, sanctions, and security guarantees. The most likely outcome is procedural progress rather than an immediate ceasefire.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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