Northern Offset Works

Iraq partially offsets the Hormuz disruption by accelerating the Baghdad-Erbil-Turkey pipeline restart and prioritizing northern barrels. This is the most likely path because the March agreement already created a framework, and Baghdad needs near-term hard-currency revenue while Gulf loadings remain unreliable.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.